Analysis

Donald Trump’s potential second term will be by ongoing criminal trials, verdicts appeals, and suspended litigation alike. While Trump has been convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, he is legally allowed to continue his campaign, potentially serve as president, and even vote for himself in the state of his residence in the election, CNN political commentators explained in a broadcast recapping the verdict. An eventual criminal conviction following the former president's indictment has led to political debate, as Reason magazine, which previous used the the term "Commander-in-Chains" to describe a potential felon president, to list seven scenarios where Trump's conviction would bode ill for his reprisal of the role as chief executive of national defenses.

Legal Experts Give Insights

Boston University has likewise spoken to legal experts who explained that the judge could become creative in sentencing, selecting a probation sentence instead of jail time. The process of Trump's legal processes, appeals, and possible probationary discipline, could create hassles for a potential second Trump presidential administration.

The Boundaries of International Law

Yet, as PolitiFact by Poyntner Institute points out, international law regarding admitting entry to persons convicted of felony crimes may vary depending on the nation. PolitiFact made particular note of Australia's law on the issue, requiring those entering Australia to have "no felony convictions within 12 months of entry", regardless of whether the individual had already served the sentence. While Trump will appeal his impending sentencing, and legal experts are skeptical that he will serve an incarcerated sentence, the facts of international law may have difficult implications for the future of state visits under a potential second Trump administration. This issue could spell logistics and diplomatic problems, including for the AUKUS defensive trade alliance, which has been nurtured under the current administration as, what President Joe Biden called “an anchor to peace and prosperity”.

Possibilities of a Criminally Convicted Commander-in-Chief

If Trump were to win re-election, the legal issues could create unprecedented constitutional challenges, as a sitting president's ongoing criminal prosecution process  raises complex questions about presidential immunity and the balance of power. These disputes fall heavily on conversations about the future of national security and defense programs led by a Commander-in-Chief who will be restricted by the outcome of the legal process.

What It Means For National Defense

A guilty verdict in any of Donald Trump's criminal trials is unlikely to affect his access to intelligence briefings, according to experts. Despite the legal challenges he faces, the decision to provide or deny such briefings lies with current government officials, and there are no specific rules mandating the cessation of briefings for former presidents under indictment or conviction.

Earlier this year, military officials had reportedly expressed fears that a re-elected Trump could abuse the Commander-in-Chief's war powers. The guilty verdict, and potential restrictions on Trump's access to classified documents based on the choices of government officials, could likewise reflect on war powers and making executive decisions that the president is under normal circumstances responsible for.

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