China’s saber-rattling against Taiwan has generated a sense of dread and anticipation in the international defense innovation community, as the industry is under-equipped for the precedent that any potential clash between the self-governing island and the mainland could generate.  

Evolving Status Quo

Ongoing conflicts around the world give real-time demonstrations of how drone technology is reshaping the strategic calculus of modern defense systems. Novel technologies have been observed to completely disrupt the status quo of strategy and operational approach in the Indo-Pacific region, a region under intense political scrutiny in recent months for the power competition on display.

Regarding Naval Warfare

Unmanned Surface Vessels, or USVs, have been proven in the Ukraine conflict to have a transformative impact on the calculus in the Black Sea.

Both allies of Taiwan and China take note of the advantages of USVs naval combat, defense analysts wrote in a commentary that appeared in The Diplomat on April 4.

The Indo-Pacific as a Priority

When asked what impact novel technologies would have on Indo-Pacific strategy, the United States Navy explained to Frontsight Media that investments are presently being distributed to advance novel capabilities to increase weapons’ lethality and to make innovative Navy craft harder to target:

"Indo-Pacific security is a priority for the US Navy. Our Allies and partners are one of our greatest strengths and a key strategic advantage. The Navy is deepening our connections with regional Allies and partners, as well as supporting our Allies and partners as they strengthen their relationships with one another,” a Navy spokesperson wrote to Frontsight Media.

Concepts, Conflicts, and Catalyzing Demonstrations

  • The U.S. has engaged with the knowledge that Unmanned Surface Vehicles, or USVs, will provide unprecedented levels of combat readiness for the Navy. In 2022, MIT Technology Review described the Navy’s “ambitious” Super Swarm project, highlighted by budget documents for that year.
  • The concept of a drone swarm has been at play for years and has even been tested on the battlefield before, with Israel becoming the first nation to use a drone swarm in combat in 2021.
  • However, the degree of geopolitical impact that drone swarm attacks can imprint upon conflict escalations was put on broadcast as Iran attacked Israel in April with one such swarm.

Operational  Analysis:

Phillip Martinez, a 22-year Navy veteran who has served as a U.S. Operations Officer and a Navy Space Cadre member, added additional context to the Navy spokesperson's remarks:

“The orchestration of maritime intelligence through a network of drones, satellites, and autonomous vehicles forms the backbone of contemporary naval strategy. This is particularly true in the strategically pivotal Indo-Pacific region,” Martinez wrote in response to Frontsight Media.

In Martinez’s written analysis, he explained to Frontsight Media, that the integration of advanced surveillance tools like UAVs, satellites, and autonomous maritime vehicles is pivotal for maritime security, particularly in the geopolitically tense Indo-Pacific region. These tools, supported by a unified command structure and sophisticated communication networks like the U.S. Navy's Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC), provide comprehensive maritime intelligence and strengthen situational awareness. This strategic alignment not only deters adversarial threats but also enhances operational readiness and network-driven warfare capabilities. Over the next decade, advancements in satellite technology, space-based analytics, and autonomous systems are expected to further boost the Navy's defensive and operational prowess, ensuring robust maritime domain awareness and response efficiency in this critical region.

USVs For the Warfighter

Marine drones are used to patrol and escort vessels in restricted areas and have been used for over a decade. RAND Corporation, a defense research institute that describes its efforts as “working to improve policy and decision making” wrote about the advantages of USVs as long ago as 2013, noting in peacetime the use of USVs in “benign communications environments,” and useful even for Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW), at that time describing them as useful for performing unarmed area wide sanitation operations.  

Use Cases and Development

  • John Hopkins University demonstrated the technical capabilities of USVS with a formation test by the Naval Warfare Center. The sync test showed how a fleet of high-speed USVs could be synced to sail in formation. Tested USVs reach speeds of over 40 knots, or above 50 miles per hour, test demonstrators explained.
  • John Hopkins Naval Warfare testers demonstrated the value of USVs as defenders in a high-speed USV drone swarm conducted as long ago as September 2016. At this date, the team was able to demonstrate a team of six USVs that were able to coordinate in a formation.
  • Tactically, at the time of the test, the USVs filed in a single line to hide their numbers while approaching an intruder's vessel and then broke into a V formation to escort the intruder out of restricted waters. As long ago as the test, John Hopkins researchers saw the benefits of USVs for escort, rendezvous, formations, target detection and tracking, and area search.

Current Application

  • The use of drones, particularly in swarming tactics, has proven to be a disruptive force, altering traditional defensive and offensive strategies. Drones offer the ability to conduct surveillance, gather intelligence, and execute strikes with unprecedented precision and minimal risk to personnel.
  • This capability has made them a critical asset in asymmetrical warfare, where they can penetrate well-fortified positions, challenge air defenses, and change the dynamics of engagement without the logistical footprint of traditional forces.
  • The impact is especially significant in contested areas like Ukraine and the Middle East, where drones have not only enhanced operational capabilities but also forced nations to rethink their air defense and territorial control strategies.
  • This evolution underscores the growing importance of integrating advanced drone technology into military doctrine to maintain strategic superiority in an increasingly complex and technologically driven battlefield.

Comparative Impact of Drones in Ukraine

Analysis written by Kristen D. Thompson, a military fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations, and published in January, gave U.S. military personnel insight into the transformative factor of diverse drones in the Ukraine conflict. Thompson’s piece highlighted the core of why the changing status quo facilitated by drones has been a decisive factor in Ukraine’s defense effort:

Equalizing Forces: Ukraine's use of a diverse drone fleet has neutralized the expected Russian air superiority, highlighting drones' ability to level the playing field in modern warfare.

Cost-Effective Innovation: By repurposing commercial drones and boosting domestic production, Ukraine has maintained a resilient and economical aerial presence, despite resource limitations.

Traditional Disruption: The conflict underscores how drones are reshaping warfare, challenging traditional defense systems, and emphasizing the role of technological adaptability in determining conflict outcomes.

Taiwan Strategy Analogy Breakdown

In 2023, senior engineer for the RAND Corporation Scott Savitz analyzed the direct strategic applications Taiwan could utilize USVs for if China carries out its threats.

Savitz’s analysis focused on key elements of combining drones with maritime minefields for maximum security. Savitz’s analysis highlighted three components that give USVs a diverse utility advantage:

  • Cost-Effective Deterrence: Taiwan's deployment of low-cost explosive Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) offers a financially viable defense strategy that increases the risks for potential invaders without significantly burdening the defense budget.
  • Enhanced Tactical Capabilities: USVs provide multiple tactical advantages, including difficulty in detection due to their low-profile design, ability to carry larger payloads for greater damage, and the potential to attack from multiple angles in swarming formations, complicating enemy defenses.
  • Strategic Defense Integration: Taiwan can enhance its defensive posture by integrating USVs with traditional naval mines and existing anti-ship and air defense systems, creating a comprehensive and layered maritime defense strategy that strengthens deterrence against amphibious assaults.

The Strategic Calculus Upset

Taiwan’s war games have scaled in recent years to accommodate situational preparedness for the unprecedented scale of technological innovation. In April, Reuters reported that Taiwan’s 2024 wargames would practice “kill zones” at sea to break a blockade.

Rising Tensions Create Economic Vulnerabilities

  • Taiwan’s pensiveness regarding China’s annexation threats has been rising in recent years, coming to a boil as the transition of power to a Beijing-hated presidential election
  • In January, the Associated Press reported how growing tensions are reshaping economic realities, which add additional strain to the strategic elements of a potential conflict. For example, Taiwan imports its energy, which makes the nation “vulnerable to blockades,” the AP writes.
  • The economic realities presented to the strategic calculus will push an arms race that looks beyond warships and missiles, and into new defensive technologies.

A New Kind of Arms Race

The scale of drone technology disruption has added fuel to a proverbial fire for the Indo-Pacific arms race. Allies expand their partnerships as observation of real-time drone warfighting applications reveals the magnitude by which warfighters must scale drone innovation and production to be competitive in the Indo-Pacific theater.

Western Alliances Expanding Strategic Cooperation

US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell suggested that Australia's nuclear-powered submarines acquired under AUKUS could eventually be deployed against China in any military conflict over Taiwan.

AUKUS and Marine Innovation

  • Campbell argued that the submarines would provide a powerful deterrent in the Taiwan Strait and could deliver conventional ordinance from long distances in coordination with other countries' submarines.
  • Strategists believe AUKUS submarine capabilities could play a role in deterring or responding to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan through conventional military means.
  • As drones continue to disrupt the model of traditional warfare, the need for USVs to defend Taiwan becomes more pronounced.

Analysts Say the US is ‘Unprepared’

  • Drones provide a disruptive solution to the other “disruptive” problems that the United States military has faced across Air and Space Forces, as analysts and retired Air Force personnel have noted striking issues with current conventional air defense technology provisions and cyber capabilities.
  • Earlier this year, a report from the Mitchell Aerospace Power Organization detailed the need for advancing collaborative air defense programs, in part, because the Navy and the Marine Corps, while having conventional air defense resources available, are trained to operate at the ground and maritime level and to prioritize these fronts.
  • As China advances its defensive capabilities in the air and the maritime front, analysts turn to the collaborative nature of public-private partnerships to overcome the dragging hurdles of Congressional policy and funding that have “fallen behind” China in competitive production.

After the Advent

Nations are waking up to the fact that drones as swarms are a defensive measure, and are poised to move beyond the idea of drones as “hunter-attacker” assets only.

The aftermath of the advent of drone offensives and countermeasures is that these demonstrations communicate to world powers a lack of transitional preparation. Traditional warfighting, analysts find, cannot remain at status for long, due to the unprecedented scale by which drone technologies have been proven to change global understanding of warfighting.

Driven home were the strategic advantages of stockpiling drones of various sizes and capabilities. Drones as swarms have now added a layer of power projection to the dynamic of unmanned vehicle warfare, and the global public has responded with awe.

As The Wall Street Journal described it, AI-assisted drone swarms can become a “tool of conquest” a concept that now prioritizes their nature as defensive assets also.  

AI: the Apex Gamechanger

With swarms of swarms looming in the approaching background of modern asymmetric strategic shifts, the force multiplier of artificial intelligence casts a long shadow that innovators feel creates an unsettling precedent.  

AI Competition and Implications: Expert Insights

In a written response to questions from Frontsight Media, Sylvester Kaczmarek, Chief Technology Officer of OrbiSky, noted that advances in artificial intelligence will generate metamorphosis for drone technology, and have consequential implications for the Indo-Pacific theater.

Kaczmarek explained that the competition between the US and China is accelerating technological innovation in unmanned systems and AI, prompting faster development cycles and shifts in resource allocation, sometimes at the expense of civilian projects. Efforts to protect intellectual property in this competitive environment have led to the implementation of robust security protocols.

"The technological arms race between the US and China is reshaping our strategic priorities rapidly, demanding quicker innovation cycles and smarter resource allocation,” Kaczmarek wrote, noting how in his view, the smartest application of AI innovation in this field would be to apply it to its benefits toward humanity and peace rather than its use in competition and power projection systems.

Real-Time Evolution

As drone swarm technology continues to rapidly reconstruct conflict, as evidenced by its impactful deployment in the Ukraine conflict, warfighting analysts' commentary appears to reach a general consensus on the irrevocable change in the landscape of modern warfare.  

"The ability for AI systems to learn and adapt in real-time is what I believe will truly revolutionize how we think about deploying technology across all domains, from maritime to Space," Kaczmarek said.

The World Will Never Be the Same Again

Across land, sea, and air,cost prohibitive development challenges are mitigated under theis new wave of innovation, as seen with Ukraine's ability to employ cost-effective, first-person view (FPV) drones that can be assembled for less than $500. As cost allows for a greater fluidity in assembly, and as warfighters increase competition in innovation, the status quo of what was strategic advantage in the IndoPacific hangs in the delicate balance of technological benefits for humanity and defensive market drive.

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