Analysis
Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) is nearing completion, officials confirmed. Massive in both size and geopolitical context, the hydroelectric feat is the greatest in African history, and will likely set the stage for a shift in the African contribution to the power competition calculus.
To Harvest Water
The Blue Nile-based dam has been a point of contention, particularly with downstream nations Sudan and Egypt, who fear it will affect their water supply. Ethiopian authorities emphasize that the dam will provide significant benefits, including electricity generation and regional development. Despite ongoing negotiations and tensions, the project continues to progress towards its operational phase.
Diplomacy Fails
Late last year, Egypt announced that talks over the GERD had failed, highlighting ongoing regional tensions. The discussions, involving Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, aimed to resolve disputes about water rights and dam operations but ended without agreement. Egypt expressed its consistent concerns over the potential impact on its water supply from the Nile, which, since the dawn of days, has been crucial for the country's agriculture and drinking water.
While Egypt demands that its unique relationship with the Nile remain undisturbed, Ethiopia maintains that the dam is vital for its economic development and electricity generation. The failure of these talks underscores the challenges in reaching a diplomatic solution.
An Ancient Discussion
Ancient Greek scholar Herodotus II explained the physicality of the River and its relationship to the Egyptian nation’s vitality:
“Now the Nile, when it overflows, floods not only the Delta, but also the tracts of country on both sides the stream which is thought to belong to Libya and Arabia, in some places reaching to the extent of two days' journey from its banks, in some even exceeding that distance, but in others falling short of it,” Herodotus II: 19.
Global Water Forum likewise points out that Ethiopia also has a long-standing relationship with the Nile, as Herodotusexplained that the Nile, called Abay in Amharic, the language of Ethiopia, springs forth from two mountains in Ethiopia.
The facts that Herodotus laid down in 460 B.C. ring true for all three nations who thrive along the Great River, considered sacred, to the present day. Just as it was long ago, so too now with questions of ownership remaining unanswered. Yale University notes, however, that the strain over this open question is growing. Though Herodotus famously wrote that Egypt is “the gift of the Nile” and so added to the famous claim that Egypt has laid over the waters since time out of memory, neighbors who also bathe and drink from this fountain say they can no longer accept Egypt’s exclusivity claims, Yale wrote.
Egypt and Sudan remain “utterly dependent” on these waters, Ohio State University “Origins,” writes of the conflict over the dam. For Egypt and Sudan, questions of ownership and sacred privilege may need rapid answers, as societal crisis pressures nations to wade deeper into the Nile’s waters and hope that its held virtue will be enough.
Ancient War Games
Away to the east, over the Red Sea, lies the tiny nation of Israel, and to its west, a war rises out of the enclave of Gaza with a smoke seen from heaven, and a cry heard in Hell. The shockwaves of the war are unprecedented, as, following the brutality done to Jewish people by Hamas on October 7, 2023, Israel says its foray into the enclave in search of hostages is an existential war. Innocent civilians have fled from the scourge of this conflict, with some being allowed into Egypt for medical intervention. As the American Prospect pointed out, the conflict is setting up the stage for decision-making that will have consequences reaching onward for decades to come.
These consequences will stretch into Egypt, which fears the impact on its civilians, as in the days of the ancient Bible story when the God of Moses made the Nile’s water turn to blood. This is why Egypt has been reluctant to allow the Palestinian refugees, who surpassed 1 million displaced earlier this year, to make an Exodus in reverse to Egypt. Rather, Egypt stresses the urgency of Gaza and Israel to reach a ceasefire pact, Egypt Today reported, as the United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken made another crisis visit to Cairo last week.
The Shadow of Seven Years of Lean
Egypt has been visited often in recent days by the shadow of Biblical legends. As the war in Ukraine has unfolded, Egypt is reminded of the Judeo-Christian story of Joseph Revealer of Dreams, the Jewish servant of an ancient Pharaoh who famously interpreted a dream of seven years of plenty followed by seven years of lean, and then proceeded to plan a solution for the coming of famine. With the war in Ukraine, just as it was in the days of Joseph, Egypt has found its wheat supplies run low, as Egyptian wheat was purchased from Ukraine before the days of the ongoing war.
Now, as the war in Ukraine wears on without a foreseeable end, enunciated by peace talks where Russia did not even appear, Egypt will brace for the continued blow to its supply chain. Institute of Middle East Studies wrote that Egypt, which once bought 85% of its grain from pre-war Ukraine, has sought alternatives in France, Romania, Bulgaria, and India.
War Within
For Ethiopia and Sudan, civil wars within their nations likewise raise the stakes of any potential military action Egypt may take against Ethiopia, as the fifth and final filling of the dam commences, which, The New Arab reports, had not been decided yet as of this past week. In Ethiopia, a brutal power struggle with the Tigray has created mass disruption, casting a pallor over the future Ethiopia imagines will come from the GERD. In the case of chronic war in Sudan, analysts note that the longer the war continues, the more prolonged the nature of the potential spillover conflict.
The Nile Boils Over
Surrounded by conflict near its borders, impacted by internal conflicts along its banks, and suffering the withering of harvests far away, the Nile is ready to boil over with the potential for a great humanitarian disaster. As the GERD dam is finally finished, the future of the River and the way of life it created is at stake, a national security issue that impacts the entire Earth to some degree, as climate change spectators with the Tom Dispatch warn the impending trial could even spell trouble for the Earth’s environment.
