Europe's Anxiety Grows Following 'Civil War' in France

Commentary/Analysis

Europe's anxiety grows as perils within national borders of allied nations strain, even threaten to fragment, ties within Allied unity, a growing issue on the radar of NATO policy analysts since at least late last year.

Reality Rattled in the West

On July 7, these issues were brought to the fore once more, as, following chaos in France, the NATO summit was accused by the Center for European Policy Analysis of flaunting "style not substance" to the world stage, in what the author, Edward Lucas called a "reality check."Now, with power shifting across the West, a shocking upset to reality, Europe's anxiety grows, and its concern over maintaining the status quo increases.

A "Kind of Civil War" in France

A "kind of civil war" was waged in France preceding the snap elections. Election results saw the left narrowly surge above the rise of the right-wing National Rally, an outcome The Washington Post called "unexpected."

Germany's Concern

The upset, precluding the Olympic Games, put the limelight on France, and the simmering discontent within. All at once, such garish exposure of growing unrest under the "newcomer" Macron caught European Union ally Germany off-guard. Germany's Chancellor warns of the risk to the European Union if France plummets into a pervasive chaos.

A Year of Political Shifting

Warnings have sounded from both sides of the political aisle. For the democratic world, from the United States to Taiwan, 2024 is a year of political dynamic shift. Great Britain, and France, have seen elections take place back to back, in some cases with surprising results.

The power dynamics of factions vary across the board.  The victory in Britain of the Labour Party was a "landslide" while, in France, the results were narrow, and keeping Macron in power and maintaining the role of the current prime minister was seen as a move for the "stability" of the nation. As the left alliance had lost the most seats in the French Parliament, the French Prime Minister has motioned to resign.  

Even in Iran, where democracy is, at present, a distant dream, elections saw the rise of a proclaimed reformist. They heard the clamor of questioning in the West as to whether the day had come at last for dialogue and change between the West and its Central Asian counterparts.  

Mirrors Across Oceans

Messaging echoes that of France, where the right's leader Marine Le Pen had promised a "new France", and rings as far as the shores of America, where former President Donald Trump mirrors Le Pen promises of a return to a reformed United States, one where border control will be a major priority and the economy will blossom.

NATO Braces For Imposed Changes

In Europe, faction wars in America have mirrored across the ocean and caused left-leaning European leaders to sound alarm signals over what might take place should Donald Trump regain the presidency. The Associated Press reports that, in the wake of re-election doubts over incumbent President Joe Biden, NATO has braced for survival and attempts to "proof" the union, against the transition of power in America.

The criticism by CEPA and the tonal shift across Europe's recent campaign trail shows that NATO's substance is in question from more nuanced angles, accused by CEPA analysts in this take as doing "too little, too late" to assist Ukraine, a non-member nation on the border of the West that nations such as Estonia have insisted must become part of the alliance. NATO has self-proclaimed it will commit to Ukraine's membership bid, but critics warn that this commitment is overdue, and the delay is costly.

As the United States's capitol of Washington, D.C. hosts this year's NATO Summit, even amid concerns from the alliance over the U.S. leadership of the group, NATO itself is poised for changes imposed by the rattled reality of changing global dynamics.