ANALYSIS
World powers invest in revolutionizing energy because of the common belief that energy stability will benefit national security. Yet, as Peter Garretson and Namrata Goswami point out in their analysis book “The Scramble for the Skies,” resource competition is often born of power projection.
In the case of solar-based energy, energy innovators believe that the secret to unlocking meaningful solar power for use lies in Space-based assets. As the analysts breakdown in said book, the nation to first engineer and establish a market for this power will exercise a sense of supremacy over the energy as a commodity, and the resources it provides.
A Rush For Golden Oil
On the earth, Solar power is inconsistent because the Earth's orbit limits access to the Sun at different intervals of the 24-hour period, and variations of geographic climate make the use of Solar-power as a replacement to more established energy sources unrealistic. However, scientists reason, if they could get closer to the Sun, an limit the constraints of the Earth's time and climate, then they could effectively harvest Solar energy without interruption.
Space solar power (SSP) involves collecting solar energy in Space using large satellites directing an energy transfer wirelessly to Earth. Scientists believe SSP can harvest continuous, reliable, and abundant energy. Results have transformative implications for global energy systems, the National Space Society noted at the NSS "No Limits" Conference held earlier this year in Los Angeles. Panel meetings with the society synced to advance research in the field of photovoltaics, and burgeoning efforts to harvest the power of the sun for a global energy metamorphosis.
As scientists move ahead with their collaborative research efforts, the push for realistic Space-based solar ventures is becoming more realistic. Innovation in motion sets a precedent for the future of the rush for the “golden oil” of hybrid solar-nuclear energy sources, as Spectra discusses in an in-depth review of emerging efforts in both fields.
Despite early advocacy for SSP, to date, the technology has remained out of reach. Present deep Space enterprises, while having a solid foundation for transient robotics from the very likes of Isaac Asimov, are braced with challenges like high costs, technical complexities, and energy transmission efficiency.
All of the above have hindered SSP's advance beyond the phase of talking points. Yet, the phase of chatter is on the cusp of change, as commercial reusable rocketry and advances in satellite robotics have generated a new era of Space dominion for the enterprise. Gradually, what was once science fiction is rapidly transitioning into common place.
With that transition from fantasy to industry comes geopolitical uncertainty.
Geopolitical Entanglement
Of growing concern, the relationship between Eastern allied powers, Russia, China, and Iran, sees a decoupling and regrouping around a broad spectrum of geopolitical issues once engaged with the West.
English-language reports from out of Russia’s Space industry find that Russian scientists are developing SSP panels geared to function for 20 years. Russia’s ambitions forecast an evergreen fuel efficiency for the estimated project cost of 300 million rubles.
China has extended ongoing efforts to conduct Space-based solar power tests in low Earth orbit by 2028 and in geostationary orbit by 2030. These tests aim to develop technology for collecting solar energy in space and transmitting it to Earth, potentially providing a continuous and sustainable power source. This initiative underscores China's commitment to advancing its space capabilities and exploring innovative energy solutions.
These three major powers engaged in both Space-based solar innovation race and intense Earth-based power competition. Geopolitics have become entangled in SSP as a result of these international relations.
While the rules of engagement for international struggle are under tested in Space, Space policy makers have patterned governance on the Outer Space Treaty, a treaty inspired by Arctic and maritime law.
An Urgency from The Strain on OPEC
If Space policy continues to draw from international governance of Earth-bound industries, Space-based energy can expect similar challenges to international energy governing bodies.
Once such governing body with significant international influence is OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), a coalition of oil-producing nations that coordinates petroleum policies to control oil production and prices globally. By setting production targets and influencing market prices, OPEC operates as a cartel, aiming to stabilize oil markets and maximize member countries' revenues.
Strains on global energy systems stem from a broad range of energy production and distribution issues. For OPEC, an example of this was energy production cuts earlier this year.
As current energy systems strain over procurement procedure problems, they also become entangled in geopolitics.
Trouble in OPEC
Earlier this year, analysts with Forex Live traced emerging signs that OPEC could face a breakdown stemming from internal conflicts over oil production quotas and strategies. Disputes among member nations about output levels and market strategies are testing the organization's unity, potentially undermining its ability to influence global oil prices effectively.
Pretext For War in the Heavens
SSP advancement unlocking off-world and unlimited energy resources that can be combined with other hybrid efforts has great appeal in the face of the growing struggle for current crude resources. Yet, the trouble that tests OPEC’s limits can set a precedent for Space-based capabilities, the U.S. Defense Department has deliberated in recent years. Nations are faced with creating an energy governing body in Space that will make SSP a reality for the entire Earth, or with the battle for energy supremacy all the way to the heavens.
Conclusion: The Allure of Solar Innovation Comes With a Cost
Our analysis concludes that, solar-based innovation, while posing an alluring alternative to the issues of current energy resources and the problem of realistic use of solar panels on the Earth, comes with the cost of setting a pretext for Space-based conflicts. As innovators proceed, national security entities are expected to also set grounds for maintaining the Earthbound national interests of state power stations set in Space.
